The load-to-truck ratio and how spot rates move
The load-to-truck ratio is the quickest read on whether the board is tight or loose. It is a pressure gauge, not a price. Here is what it counts, what it misses, which public numbers to watch next to it, and how to use all of it when you pick your next load.
Key takeaways
- DAT defines the load-to-truck ratio as loads posted on a load board divided by trucks posted, for one market and one equipment type.
- Read the direction, not the number. DAT says the ratio tends to move before rates do, and that a universal "good" ratio doesn't hold up.
- The ratio only sees posted spot freight. Contract freight, trucks that never post and duplicate load posts all skew it.
- Pair it with public data: EIA's weekly diesel price, the BTS Freight TSI, Census retail and inventory reports, and USDA's truck availability ratings for produce.
What the load-to-truck ratio is
DAT says the load-to-truck ratio is "the number of loads posted on a load board divided by the number of trucks posted, measured for a specific market and equipment type." The math is one line:
Load posts ÷ truck posts = load-to-truck ratio
DAT's own example: a market with 300 outbound van loads posted and 100 vans posted has a ratio of 3.0, or three loads for every truck. A few details matter:
- It is per market and per trailer type. One city can be tight for flatbeds and loose for vans in the same week.
- Market ratios use outbound freight. A high outbound ratio means more freight is leaving than there are trucks posted to haul it.
- It is the inverse of truck-to-load. A load-to-truck ratio of 4.0 is the same market as a truck-to-load ratio of 0.25. Check which one a chart shows before you read it.
- It changes all day. Posts turn over constantly. DAT publishes weekly national averages for van, reefer and flatbed to smooth out the noise.
DAT calls the ratio "closer to a barometer than a thermometer." It tells you pressure is building or easing, not what a lane pays.
Why it differs by trailer type and region
A ratio only makes sense next to the normal for that trailer and that market. DAT describes the three main trailer types like this:
| Trailer | How DAT describes its ratio | What drives it |
|---|---|---|
| Dry van | The broadest freight base and the steadiest ratios of the three. | Consumer and retail goods all year. A useful baseline read on the market. |
| Reefer | Seasonal and regional. Spikes hard in produce areas during harvest, then settles. | Harvest timing in each growing region, holidays. |
| Flatbed | The highest and most volatile ratios of the three. | Construction, manufacturing and weather. Slows in winter across much of the country. |
So a flatbed ratio that looks huge next to a van ratio can be perfectly normal. Compare flatbed to flatbed history, not to van.
Region matters just as much. DAT says every market has its own baseline. Dense freight hubs attract lots of truck posts, so their ratios sit lower than in thinner markets. The same number can mean tight in a big hub and slow in a small market that usually runs higher. Compare a market to its own recent weeks and to the national average for your trailer type.
For reefer, check USDA too. USDA's Specialty Crops National Truck Rate Report rates truck availability in produce shipping areas as Surplus, Slight Surplus, Adequate, Slight Shortage or Shortage. It is free and comes from a government source, not a load board.
A signal, not a price
The ratio is most useful as a trend. DAT puts it this way: a ratio of 4.0 doesn't mean much alone. A ratio that climbed from 2.0 to 4.0 in three weeks says capacity is tightening. One that fell from 6.0 to 4.0 says the opposite, even though the number is the same.
- It leads. DAT says ratios tend to move before rates do. Brokers and carriers feel the shift on the board before it shows up in what loads pay.
- It is not a guarantee. DAT says a high ratio usually, but not always and not right away, means rates go up. A rise that lasts several weeks is a stronger signal than a one-week spike.
- It doesn't price a lane. To know what a lane pays, you need rate data from real transactions and your own rate history and cost per mile. The ratio tells you how hard to push; rate data tells you how far.
About "2 loads per truck is healthy": you will see that rule online. DAT says to treat it with caution, because normal depends on trailer, market and season.
What the ratio can't see
DAT lists these blind spots on its own page. Know them before you lean on the number.
| Limit | Why it happens | What it does to the ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Only posted freight | Most truckload freight moves under contract and reaches a board only when it falls out of a shipper's routing guide. | It shows the spot market, not the whole market. |
| Not every truck posts | Many carriers book by phone or through broker relationships. | Available trucks are undercounted. |
| Duplicate load posts | Posts can stay up after a load is covered, and brokers may post the same load more than once. | Load counts can run high. |
| No direction | Two markets can show the same outbound ratio while trucks prefer one destination. | It won't tell you which lanes drivers avoid. |
| Not a rate | It counts posts, not dollars. | It can't tell you what a lane pays. |
Why it still works: DAT points out that these errors move with the market. A broker reposts a load because nobody took it, which is exactly the tightness you want to see. In a tight market fewer carriers bother posting trucks, so the truck count shrinks and the ratio rises. Read the movement, not the absolute number.
Each load board counts posts on its own network, so numbers from two boards won't match. See load boards compared for what each one offers.
Other public numbers that move rates
The ratio shows today's board. These public reports show the costs and the freight volume behind it. Most are free.
| Indicator | Who publishes it | How often | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| On-highway diesel price | EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) | Weekly. Monday prices, posted around 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday (Wednesday after a federal holiday). | Your biggest running cost. Shown nationally, by region (PADD) and for some states. Prices include all taxes. |
| Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) | BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics) | Monthly, on a fixed schedule, with a lag (for example, the March 2025 index was scheduled for May 15, 2025). | Month-to-month change in for-hire freight shipments by truck, rail, inland waterways, pipeline and air, seasonally adjusted. |
| Advance Monthly Retail Trade | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly (August 2026 numbers came out September 16, 2026). | Whether shoppers are spending more or less. Retail spending drives a lot of van and reefer freight. |
| Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales | U.S. Census Bureau | Monthly. | Business inventories and the inventories/sales ratio. Full warehouses can mean fewer restocking loads ahead. |
| Specialty Crops National Truck Rate Report | USDA Agricultural Marketing Service | Regular reports during the year. | Reefer truck availability and rates from produce shipping areas. |
Two industry indexes, as their publishers describe them:
- ATA reports a monthly For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index based on surveys of its members, and says the index is dominated by contract freight, not spot freight. So it can move differently from the spot board.
- Cass reports a monthly Freight Index with a shipments index (for-hire freight shipments across all domestic modes) and an expenditures index that includes both contract and spot rates. Cass says it is typically released within two weeks of month-end.
Seasons stack on top of all this. Produce harvests, holiday retail, quarter-end pushes and weather each tighten or loosen certain markets every year. See the freight market calendar for the month-by-month pattern.
Spot rates vs contract rates
The ratio and spot rates live in the same place: the load board. Contract rates are set ahead of time between a shipper and a carrier or broker, so they react later and more slowly.
- When the board tightens, carriers have more reason to turn down contract loads that pay less than spot, DAT notes. More freight falls out of routing guides and lands on the board, and spot rates feel it first.
- When the board loosens, spot rates usually drop first, and contract freight looks better because it is steady.
- ATA's tonnage index is mostly contract freight, so it can stay flat while the spot board swings, or the other way around. Don't expect the two to match week to week.
Most small carriers mix both: a few steady lanes plus spot loads to fill gaps and reposition. Our spot vs contract freight guide covers how to build that mix.
How to use it day to day
Use the ratio to decide where to be, not just which load to grab. A simple routine:
| When | What to check | What you do with it |
|---|---|---|
| Before you book a load | The outbound ratio where that load delivers, and its trend over the last few weeks. | If it is falling, line up the reload (next load) before you get there, or ask more for the first leg. |
| When you are empty | Ratios in nearby markets for your trailer type. | DAT notes that moving about 100 miles to a tighter market sometimes pays better than waiting. Run the empty miles (deadhead) in the deadhead calculator first. |
| While negotiating | Is the origin ratio rising for several weeks? Is the load reposted? | A rising ratio and reposted loads are leverage. Your cost per mile is your floor. See how to negotiate rates. |
| Every Tuesday | EIA's new weekly diesel price for your region. | If a contract ties your fuel surcharge to a published price, check which one it names and update your numbers in the fuel surcharge calculator. |
| Once a month | BTS Freight TSI, Census retail sales and inventories, and the ATA and Cass releases. | Look at direction. If freight volume and retail sales are both slipping, plan for softer spot rates in your lanes. |
A dispatcher does this every day for each truck: watching ratios in the delivery market, planning the reload and pricing the load against your costs.
- DAT: What is the load-to-truck ratio?
- EIA: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
- EIA: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update release schedule
- BTS: February 2025 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)
- U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Retail Trade
- U.S. Census Bureau: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
- USDA AMS: Specialty Crops National Truck Rate Report
- ATA: Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5% in August (Sep 22, 2026)
- Cass Information Systems: Cass Freight Index
This page is general information, not legal or tax advice. Rules change; confirm with FMCSA, the IRS or your state before you file.
Questions carriers ask
What is a good load-to-truck ratio?
There isn't one number. DAT says to treat the common "2 loads per truck" benchmark with caution, because normal depends on trailer type, market and season. Compare a market to its own recent weeks and to the national average for your trailer.
Why is the flatbed ratio so much higher than the van ratio?
DAT says flatbed ratios run structurally higher and are the most volatile, because flatbed demand follows construction, manufacturing and weather. A high flatbed number is normal by itself. Compare it to flatbed history, not to van.
Does a high ratio mean rates will go up?
Usually, but not always and not right away. DAT says the ratio tends to move before rates and that a rise lasting several weeks is a stronger signal than a one-week spike. It signals pressure; it doesn't set a price.
Does the ratio include contract freight?
No. It counts posted loads and posted trucks on a load board, which is the spot market. DAT notes most truckload freight moves under contract and reaches the board only when it falls out of a shipper's routing guide.